Josh Allen (vs MIA)
Besides last week, the Dolphins are allowing 20+ points to opposing quarterbacks with an average of 27.6 on the season and by no means is this number slowing down this week. The Dolphins are the third worst team in terms of fantasy points allowed to fantasy quarterbacks this year and that is without facing a quarterback that has had the rushing threat that Allen does. Yes, the Dolphins played Lamar Jackson in week on, but Jackson did not even the run the ball in that game so Allen will be their first true test. The Dolphins have been torn apart in guarding the passing game, but this week especially lines up well for Josh Allen to thrive this week.
Shown above, via Sharpfootballstats.com, is a chart displaying the Dolphins allowed QBR per zone of the field so far this season. As you can tell there is no “bad” zone in terms of opposing quarterback success and if you look at the chart of the right you can see that Josh Allen thrives in short yardage passing situations for passes under ten yards are the only “green” zones. Allen is a prime spot this week to totally dominate this way below average Dolphins defense.
Leonard Fournette (vs
The Bengals are currently allowing 38 points per game to opposing fantasy running backs, and if that alone doesn’t make you believe that Fournette is going to eat this week then you are for sure messed up. The only problem with Fournette this year is the lack of touchdowns as he only has one touchdown, but Fournette is due for positive regression and WILL find the endzone this week maybe even more than once. The Bengals are currently allowing 5.4 yards per carry and Fournette has seen a much-improved attempts boost the last three weeks netting 29,23,20 rush attempts per game and not to mention his increased receiving work this year which will keep pace in this game. You are starting Fournette regardless of matchup, but this week is going to be HUGE for Fournette.
Michael Gallup (vs
The Eagles have gotten torched this year in the passing game and there seems to be no solution to their struggles. The Eagles have allowed over 50 total points to WR corps of “good” passing teams (Falcons, Packers, and Vikings) so far this season and I would argue that the Cowboys are just as good as any of those teams leaving Gallup in a smash spot for this week. Gallup lines up on the outside and will be covered by Rasul Douglas this week, and if Douglas has been nothing short of terrible this year allowing lines of 5-106-2, 6-101-1, 10-180, 7-167-3. For a receiver with 25% team target share, which could increase if Amari Cooper doesn’t play, this is no doubt my top starts this week. Gallup WILL go off this game.
Evan Engram (vs ARI)
*Insert narrative about how the Cardinals stink against tight ends*
I had to put that joke in there because this season the “start of the week” tight end has been just whoever has played the Cardinals, and yes I am going to stick with the trend so deal with it. The Cardinals are allowing 24.1 fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including a 7-point week, and before last week they haven’t really played a “top tier” tight end. Before last week’s game where Engram sat out, he was the overall TE1 and for a good reason as well.
To no surprise, Engram is dominating every category compared to the rest of the tight ends in the league mainly since he is the number 1 passing option for the Giants but that is besides the point. Austin Hooper put up 25.7 in a close matchup last week and this game is lining up to be the same way with a spread of -2.5 in favor of the Giants. Will Engram surpass 30 fantasy points? I think so.