Start/Sit Week 6

When doing my research this popped off as a weird week with not very many juicy matchups, but the matchups I have listed I believe are very good spots that will bring or not bring great fantasy production this week.

Quarterbacks

Start
Matt Ryan (vs ARI)
What a gross start to the season for this unpredictable Falcons team. Although a lot of the struggles have occurred due to injuries, but with these struggles has surprisingly brought solid fantasy value to Matt Ryan. The Cardinals are currently allowing the second most points to fantasy quarterbacks at 26.9 points per game, however that number is a little inflated in a good way. The Cardinals are no short of a bad NFL team and with being bad comes a negative game script. Due to the negative game script, positive for the opposing team, it leads to the opposing teams to run the ball more which in my opinion shows that the points allowed to fantasy quarterbacks could be a little higher. In a game where the Cardinals are home and favored, I think it will be a tight game causing Matt Ryan to continuously throw the ball.

Kyler Murray (vs ATL)
We finally got to see the rushing attack of Kyler Murray after what seemed like an eternity of waiting and let me tell you it was promising for Murray’s fantasy value. The same analysis that came with Matt Ryan relates a lot to Kyler in this game as well. The Falcons rank 3rd in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks at 26.4 points per game and in week one they allowed 15 points to Kirk Cousins, so they are getting torched as of late. The Falcons have only faced one true rushing quarterback and that was last week against Deshaun Watson who ran for 47 yards and had 46 fantasy points. Favored and at home are not words that you think you would hear when talking about the Cardinals, but with the recent uptick in designed rushing plays Kyler is in a smash spot.

Sit
Jameis Winston (vs CAR)
I love me some Jameis Winston, but the location and defense he is facing this week is making me place him in this category. The Panthers are currently allowing only 18.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and that is in not considering the historically low scoring games that seem to take place in London. In week 2, Winston had a season low 25 passing attempts against this Panthers team in what was a low scoring affair which translated to 15.3 fantasy points. Lets just hope that the Bucs arrive in London before Friday and maybe this game may not be as boring, but don’t expect much.

Running Backs

Start
Devonta Freeman (vs ARI)
To start the year I was against having anything to do with Devonta Freeman, but due to the situation the Falcons are in with negative game scripts and a bad offensive line I think Freeman is a solid RB2 for the rest of season and is a sure fire RB1 this week. With only one touchdown on the season people have given up on Freeman, but the volume is going to be there every week and the scoring oppurtunities will come trust me. The Cardinals are currently allowing 27 receiving yards to opposing running backs, and yes, I get that 27 yards isn’t very appealing but the opposing teams in all those games were winning and had no need to make throws to the running back. Freeman’s PPR points per opportunity has increased at a rapid rate the last two weeks going from 0.62 to 1.12 which is almost double the original total. If the 1.12 stays consistent for Freeman in a high-powered neutral game, then he is going to eat this week.

Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman (vs LAR)
After smashing the overrated Cleveland Browns the 49ers are going to look to keep the win column building against the Rams this week. The Rams are currently allowing 26.1 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, with one of those games being an outlier in the Saints game where Drew Brees got hurt, and they showed their vulnerability last week to the Seahawks and Chris Carson. Both running backs have shown that are playable every week in standard and ppr formats, and this week they are going to use that momentum to keep the win streak alive. Like come on, if Ronald Jones can put up 70 yards and a touchdown on this defense, imagine what two much better running backs behind a top offensive line can do.

Sit
Phillip Lindsay (vs TEN)
The Titans have been extremely good against the run this year only allowing 21.2 fantasy points to opposing running backs, which is currently ranked at the 8th best.

Shown above is Lindsay’s snap percentages for each week of the 2019 season and by viewing the graph you can see that he is in a complete timeshare. The last two weeks Royce Freeman has outpaced him and to me the percentages the last two weeks are going to stick for the rest of season. A hard matchup, 50/50 timeshare, and an underwhelming offense only leads to one thing…keep him on the bench.

Wide Receivers

Start
Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup (vs NYJ)
Besides last week, due to a weird game script, the Jets have allowed points totals to opposing wide receivers of 38.1, 41.3, 57.9 and this week does not look like that is going to change. Cooper and Gallup are clearly the two dominant air weapons for this Cowboys team, and against a weak secondary it is a no brainer that these two are going to have outstanding weeks. There is the argument that the Cowboys could have a similar game script to the Eagles last week and not have to throw the ball, but with Sam Darnold and Chris Herndon back this week I do not think that is the case. The Jets should score enough points to keep this game “close” to where the Cowboys will continue to throw the ball.

Sit
Golden Tate (vs NE)
By all means, if you are going to bank on injuries of Barkley, Engram, and Shepard to turn into fantasy points for Golden Tate you are more than welcome to play him but please do NOT fall into this trap of a game. Tate has been given a 41% matchup disadvantage, 41%!!! If that does not scream sit then I don’t know what else to tell you. The weather is supposed to be less than ideal with wind and rain and per usual the Patriots defense ALWAYS takes away the team’s best player and due to all the injuries, that leaves Tate as the team’s best option. Pivot to any other upside player rather than relying on 8 catches for 50 yards.

Tight Ends

Start
Chris Herndon (vs DAL)
This one boils down to one thing; the return of Sam Darnold and I am surprisingly excited about this Jets offense. After a rough start to the season, due to Sam Darnold being sick and Chris Herndon being suspended, the Jets are finally at full go and I am super excited to see what they can do. Herndon was a favorite of Darnold last year and this only makes sense as due to negative game scripts, Herndon will see tons of volume and with a matchup against the Cowboys it only seems fitting that a negative game script is in store.

Austin Hooper (vs ARI)
Obviously you are going to be starting a top 5 tight end every week, but this week especially Hooper is in a prime spot to perform at an elite level. Hooper is currently averaging 8.4 targets per game and is going against the number 1 defense in terms of points allowed to tight ends. The Cardinals are current averaging 23.6 points per game to opposing tight ends and there is no chance that number goes down this week. Hooper is a sure fire top 3 tight end this week.