DRAFTKINGS CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS: WEEK 6

WEEK 6 CHALK PLAYS:

QB LAMAR JACKSON ($6900)

Jackson has a cake matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals at home.  The Bengals have given up the 9th most fantasy points to QBs this season, and the dual-threat QB has hit over 21+ FPs in 4 out of 5 games.  PROJECTION: 25+ FPs

QB MATT RYAN ($6400)

Last week Ryan was a value play at $5900, but this week his price went up $500 after dropping 35.9 FPs in a losing effort against the Texans.  It should be more of the same against the Arizona Cardinals, who have given up the 4th most fantasy points to QBs.   The Falcons pass the ball 72% of the time, the highest in the league, and this Sunday should be no different.  PROJECTION: 26+ FPs

RB ALVIN KAMARA ($8000)

Kamara’s price dropped $600 so he’s a “reasonable” chalk play this week on the road against the Jacksonville Jags.  He’s averaging around 20 touches a game, and Teddy Bridgewater seems to be getting more leeway to throw the ball down the field, which should help Kamara even more.  Look for him to possibly score a TD this week, since he hasn’t been in the end zone since week 3. PROJECTION: 29+ FPs

RB NICK CHUBB ($7300)

Chubb had a rough week on MNF, putting up his lowest FP total of the year with only 10.9 FPs. Prior to that, he was averaging almost 23 FP/game, highlighted by a 42.3 breakout game against Baltimore.  Cleveland’s line is struggling, but the Seattle defense has been giving up double-digit FPs to Kamara, David Johnson, and Todd Gurley over the past three weeks.  Chubb should put of similar numbers in a bounce-back game.  PROJECTION: 19+ FPs

WR COOPER KUPP ($7100)

Kupp and Jared Goff have been BFFs since he came into the league in 2017.  Goff has made it his life mission to throw to Kupp as much as possible in Sean McVay’s scheme, and the results have been through the roof.  Kupp has averaged double-digit targets in 4 out of 5 games, and he’s averaged over 25 FP/game.  He’s chalk as hell, but he’s consistent; and for $7100 that’s still reasonable considering the production.  With Brandin Cooks possibly missing a game due to a concussion, and Kupp working in the slot to avoid Richard Sherman, he should continue to produce this week. PROJECTION: 28 FPs

WR DEANDRE HOPKINS ($7400)

Hopkins got back into double-digit FPs as predicted.  I projected in this article last week he would have 18 FPs, but he came up just short with 15.8.  Will Fuller’s career game led Hopkins to taking a back seat stat-wise, but he still reeled in 7 catches for 88 yards.  Hopkins is Deshaun Watson’s favorite target, and this week he’ll see a lot of action in what should be a shootout on the road in Kansas City.  Hopkins’ price actually dropped $400 so you’re getting him at a chalk discount this week.  Look for Nuk to get into back into the end zone as well; he hasn’t scored a TD since week 1 and he’s long overdue.  PROJECTION: 25+ FPs

TE TRAVIS KELCE ($7300)

Duh. The TE position is terrible as usual this year, with a handful of consistent players at the position.  The DK prices reflect that dearth.  Kelce is the only TE over $7000 this week; all the rest are under $5400.  So there’s value all around.  But for the purposes of this article, we’re going with the chalkiest of the TE chalk with Kelce, who’s averaging 8+ targets per game and is the TE with the highest amount of deep shots down the field.  He could be in for a monster game against the Texans, especially if Tyreek Hill returns to open up the field.  Teams could look to play more man defense against the Chiefs like the Colts did last week.  But with Hill back to stretch that man defense, Kelce should eat against a linebacker or safety.  PROJECTION: 20+ FPs

TE GEORGE KITTLE ($5200)

Kittle lived up to his expectations; he was projected in this article last week to have 18+ FPs and he had 20.8.  He continues to be a value chalk play, but now he’s $100 cheaper at $5300. Now that Tevin Coleman is back, the Niners offense should really open up.  They’re averaging 200 yards per game rushing, and Kyle Shanahan’s offense is predicated on play-action passes working off that successful run games.  Kittle leads the team in targets with 29; the next closest person is Deebo Samuel with 17.  So Kittle is the focus of that passing attack. Look for Kittle to have another 7-8 targets, 60-70 yards, and possible a TD.   PROJECTION: 21+FPs

HONORABLE MENTION:  QB RUSSELL WILSON ($6600); RB DERRICK HENRY ($6100); WR CHRIS GODWIN ($6700); TE ZACH ERTZ ($5400)

WEEK 6 VALUE PLAYS

QB CASE KEENUM ($5000)

You read that right: Case Keenum.  I know what you’re thinking: he’s not good and interim head coach Bill Callahan has said he wants to run the ball.  And I agree with those points.  HOWEVER, they’re playing the Miami Dolphins, who suck worse than Keenum ever could.  And as bad as the Dolphins are against the run, they’ve typically given up most of those rushing yards in garbage time when the they were getting their ass handed to them.  That isn’t likely to happen this week, since both these defenses are inept.  Look for the game to stay close, which means Keenum should be passing against a weak secondary throughout the contest.  Remember, Keenum lit up the Eagles in week one for 380 yards and 3 TDs, good for 30.2 FPs. His $5000 salary will allow you room for chalk in other parts of your lineup, and he’s a good GPP play too. PROJECTION:  21+ FPs

QB DAK PRESCOTT ($6200)

Prescott’s $6200 price tag is borderline chalk rates, but his production for that price is relatively cheap.  4 out of 5 games Dak has put up over 23+ FPs.  The sorry New York Jets are an ideal slumpbuster for Prescott and the Cowboys this week. The Cowboys have the highest rate of successful with pass plays in the league at 55% according to Sharp Football stats; the Jets have been at only 47% at defending against the pass.  Look for Dak to continue to put up solid numbers this week.  PROJECTION: 23 FPs

RB PHILLIP LINDSAY ($5300)

Guess who’s back?  Back again. Lindsay’s back, tell a friend!  Lindsay was recommended last week in this article, but the projection was way off.  He was expected to get around 15 FPs, yet he blew up for 27.7 FPs.  Lindsay’s still in that timeshare with Royce Freeman, and he got less snaps than Freeman (28 to 33), but Lindsay got more touches (19 to Freeman’s 15).  The matchup against the Tennessee Titans isn’t ideal, but at $5300 with his volume and efficiency, he’s hard to pass up when putting together your lineup.  PROJECTION: 17 FPs

RB JOE MIXON ($5500)

Mixon’s price has dropped $600 this week, probably due to the Bengals struggle with their offensive line and game script forcing them to pass just to stay in the games.  But Mixon has averaged over 18 touches and double-digit FPs in the past three games, and this week he’s going against the Baltimore Ravens, who have a weak defense against the run.  If the Bengals can keep it close, Mixon’s volume should increase.  That should give him solid numbers for the week. He’s due for a TD as well.  PROJECTION: 21 FPs

WR DEDE WESTBROOK ($5100)

DJ Chark is the popular WR on the Jacksonville Jaguars for good reason.  Gardner Minshew loves this guy, and he’s been throwing the ball to him on the regular since he’s taken over the starting job.  But Chark will be facing up with Marshon Lattimore this week.  Yeah, the same Marshon Lattimore that completely shut down Mike Evans last week and allowed Amari Cooper only 9.8 FPs the week before that.  In walks Westbrook, who will work out of the slot and avoid all that Lattimore fantasy-point stifling smoke.  Westbrook has had double-digit FPs in 4 out of 5 games, and has averaged 7 targets per game since Minshew started.  It’s about time he got a TD as well.  PROJECTION: 17 FPs

WR MOHAMMED SANU ($4500)

Sanu is another slot guy who’s in position to eat this week.  He’s averaging 7 targets a game in the pass-heaviest offense, and he’s got a good matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. That’s solid production for only $4500.  Feel free to stack him with Ryan this week for maximum results.  PROJECTION: 15+ FPs

TE AUSTIN HOOPER ($5000)

Hooper is another repeat player from last week, and for good reason.  His price may have gone up $500 since last week, but dude has averaged over 21 FPs over the past 3 weeks.  Plus he’s going up against a defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to TEs this season.  He’ll be a popular stack with Ryan this week.  PROJECTION: 22+ FPs

TE GERALD EVERETT ($3600)

Everett has averaged over 9 targets a game over the past 2 games, so his volume is trending upward.  Brandin Cooks may be out with a concussion, so he and Kupp should split those missing targets.  If Todd Gurley were to miss this game, he could be in for even more targets.  If you’re looking to load up on chalk in a GPP, but don’t want to spend on some of the other TEs, Everett is a solid value play with good upside.  PROJECTION: 13 FPs

HONORABLE MENTION: QB GARDNER MINSHEW ($5000); RB TEVIN COLEMAN ($4400);WR PRESTON WILLIAMS ($4100); TE MARK ANDREWS ($4800)

HOME RUN FROM LAST WEEK:  WILL FULLER

Last week I projected Will Fuller to have 18+ FPs and he BLEW UP for a career game: 14 catches, 217 yards, and 3 TDs good for a tournament-winning 56.7 FPs.  His price on DK blew up too; he went from $4500 to $6000 this week.

SWING AND A MISS FROM LAST WEEK:  WAYNE GALLMAN

Gallman was on his way to a solid game.  He had 2 carries for 14 yards before going on with a concussion.  He was projected to get 21 FPs and only came up with 1.4.