DRAFTKINGS CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS: WEEK 5

When you build your lineups, you’ll inevitably have a few chalk players.  Chalk players are popular guys that serve as a team’s workhorse at a specific position.  They also tend to have high, consistent floors.  Draftkings makes you pay more for these chalk players due to their consistency.  Dalvin Cook is the perfect example of a chalk player (more on him later.)

In order for you to have the chalk, you’re going to have to look for value players at other positions.  Value players are guys that are cheaper than the chalk, but still have the potential to produce solid numbers.  These guys typically are reserves filling in for injured starters, rookies, or players with low floors and high-ceilings.  They can be volatile as hell with no consistency.  However, value guys that consistently produce over the course of several weeks can become chalk, and their price will rise accordingly.

Your ideal lineup will have a balance of chalk players that do what they do as well as value players on the cheap to fill in the gaps.  Every winning entry on DK has several value players that have blown up to complement the the chalk players.  Each week this article will identify chalk and value players you can use in your weekly lineup building process to help you cash out.

BTW, like the title says, this pricing is for DRAFTKINGS only.  You can make the same plays somewhere else, but the pricing will probably be different. 

WEEK 5 CHALK PLAYS:

QB PAT MAHOMES ($7500)

Mahomes “struggled” last week against the Lions, throwing for “just” 315 yards and no TDs.  That has been his worst game of the season.  He’s still averaging over 29 fantasy points per game so you’re paying for his production.  This week he has the Colts in town, and they’ve given up the 13th most points to fantasy QBs.  Look for him to get back to business as usual.  PROJECTION: 28+ FPs

QB DESHAUN WATSON ($6700)

Watson has been all over the place.  He looked great against the Saints in week 1, putting up 31.7 fantasy points in a game the Texans should have won if not for Bill O’Brien being an idiot.  Against the Jags in week 2, he was sacked 4 times and only had 12.9 points.  He rebounded against the Chargers with 29.8 fantasy points in week 3, only to fall back to earth in week 4 with a 12.6 point performance against the Panthers.  If history repeats itself, he’s due for another big game.  But history has nothing to do with the nice matchup he has against the Falcons sorry secondary.  They’ve given up the 10th most points to fantasy QBs.  Watson’s biggest problem is the Texans’ poor offensive line, but the Falcons pass rush has only generated 5 sacks this season, so he should be good.  PROJECTION: 26+ FPs

RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT ($8300)

Zeke has a juicy matchup at home against a Packers team that gave up 176 rushing yards to the Eagles.  The Packers have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing teams.  Zeke is averaging over 18 fantasy points per game and he should be above those numbers this week.  Surprisingly, his price has been dropping each week.  In week 1, he was way overpriced at $9200 for a back that held out and missed training camp.  He’s now $8400.  That’s high, but reasonable for a chalk running back of his caliber.  PROJECTION: 23+ FPs

RB DALVIN COOK ($8400)

At this point, nothing much needs to be said about Cook.  Gary Kubiak is working this man’s ass off, and he’s produced.  He had a bad day last week against the Bears, but that’s expected with their strong defense.  He still put up 19 fantasy points on DK, which was good for 14th.  This week he has the Giants, who have given up the 13th fewest points to fantasy running backs.  On paper, that doesn’t look for Cook on paper, but in reality, the Giants have given up so many yards through the air that teams haven’t had to run much against them.  That changes this week, as the run-heavy Vikings will continue to give Cook 20+ touches a game.  PROJECTION: 26+ FPs

WR DEANDRE HOPKINS ($7800)

After starting out hot against the Saints in week 1 with 34.1 fantasy points, Hopkins has cooled off substantially.  His high price tag has dropped as a result; he went from $8000 in week 1 to $7800 this week.  But he’s got a nice matchup against an average Falcons secondary, and Nuk has a whopping 29% target share in this offense, so he should be ready to get back into double digit fantasy points this week.  Deshaun Watson should not have to scramble for his life like he did last week, so he’ll have plenty of time to find his favorite target.  Feel free to pair these guys in one of your lineups.  PROJECTION: 18 FPs

WR JULIO JONES ($7700)

The table is set for Jones to eat this week.  He’s going up against the 10th most favorable defense for WRs, and he’s averaging over 9 targets and just over 21 fantasy points a game.  Unlike the Julio Jones of the past, the 2019 version is scoring TDs also.  He has a 25% red zone target share, so he’s got a good shot at a TD (or 2.) You can confidently stack him with Matt Ryan this weekend.  PROJECTION: 24 FPs

TE TRAVIS KELCE ($7300)

Kelce started off slow, but he’s been solid ever since.  He’s averaged 7 catches and 94 yards for 19.4 fantasy points over the last 3 games.  His matchup with the Colts is excellent; they’ve given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing TEs.  His price tag is steep, which makes him hard to stack with Patrick Mahomes, but he could be in for a big game, especially with Tyreek Hill already ruled out for week 5.  PROJECTION: 20+ FPs

TE GEORGE KITTLE ($5300)

Kittle hasn’t been the top-3 TE we were expecting at the start of the season; he’s only averaging a little over 11 fantasy points per game.  But he’s been averaging 7 targets a game and has an amazing 81% catch rate.  He’s also a 24.7% target share for the team, which is 3rd among TEs.  Suffice it to say, dude gets volume.  Coming off a bye week in a Monday night matchup against the Browns, he should be ready for a breakout game.  Plus, with volume like this, he’s a value chalk play at only $5300.  PROJECTION: 18+FPs

HONORABLE MENTION:  QB JAMEIS WINSTON ($6200); RB DAVID JOHNSON ($7500); WR MICHAEL THOMAS ($6600); TE ZACH ERTZ ($6000)

WEEK 5 VALUE PLAYS:

QB MATT RYAN ($5900)

Ryan is currently in charge of a top-5 passing attack, and although the Texans have a defense that’s given up the 18th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, he has attempted 176 throws this season.  That’s good for 2nd place behind Jared Goff (who played a game last night to take the lead).  The Falcons throw a lot, and this week will be no different.  He’s averaged over 23 fantasy points per game, and his price on DK has been dropping each week.  He’s a solid value play this week in a game that should have a lot of scoring; the current over/under is a 49.  PROJECTION:  22+ FPs

QB JACOBY BRISSETT ($5300)

Frank Reich’s short passing game coupled with one of the league’s best offensive lines and a solid running game have allowed Brissett to flourish.  He has put together back-to-back 20+ fantasy point games over the past two weeks.  He comes into Kansas City in a game that will inevitably lead to him having to pass to keep pace.  TY Hilton got in a couple of limited practices this week, so he should be good to go.  At only $5300, there will be plenty of room to build a solid lineup or two around him.  PROJECTION: 23 FPs

RB WAYNE GALLMAN ($5400)

Not gonna lie: Gallman is going to have his work cut out for him against Minnesota.  The matchup is not good; the Vikings have given up the 6th fewest amount of fantasy points to running backs.  So why is Gallman on this list?  First, he’s cheap for a starting running back.  Second, he’s the only back on the roster capable of doing anything.  Elijhaa Penny and Jon Hilliman got some play as the game got into garbage time, but Hilliman got only 33 yards on 10 carries and fumbled the ball and Penny only got 3 carries.  Should this game stay somewhat competitive, Gallman could be in for similar volume to what he had in week 4, where he had 24 touches and scored 2 TDs, good for 28.8 fantasy points.  He may not have 28.8 fantasy points like he did last week, but he’s a surefire bet to get enough volume to warrant another start.  PROJECTION: 21 FPs

RB PHILLIP LINDSAY ($4900)

Lindsay mysteriously got only 10 touches against Jacksonville last week, but the 1st 3 weeks of the season he averaged 19 touches.  Although he’s in a full-blown timeshare with Royce Freeman, he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 3 of 4 games, and is averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game.  The Chargers are hurting defensively and Melvin Ingram is out as well, so this could turn into a tight game.  Lindsay’s volume should return to form, and so should his opportunity to put up double-digit fantasy points.  PROJECTION: 15 FPs

WR CURTIS SAMUEL ($4500)

Samuel is averaging almost 8 targets per game, so he’s getting looks.  The problem is he’s only catching 58% of his targets.  Still, fantasy football is all about volume, and Kyle Allen is looking to get Samuel the ball.  Even though he’s going up against Jacksonville, they’ve given up the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.  And at $4500, he’ll allow you to add some high-priced chalk into other parts of your lineup.  PROJECTION: 12 FPs

WR WILL FULLER ($4500)

Fuller is Deshaun Watson’s 2nd favorite WR on the team; he’s been targeted 23 times over the past 4 weeks.  Last week he could have had a 75 yard score had Watson connected; he also was targeted on a pass to the end zone that was intercepted.  So he’s set up for a solid performance this week, and at $4500, that’s a bargain for a starting WR with good upside against a Falcons defense that gave up a combined 8 receptions for 185 yards and 3 TDs to AJ Brown and Corey Davis last week.  PROJECTION: 18+ FPs

TE AUSTIN HOOPER ($4500)

Hooper has been averaging over 8 targets per game and over 18 FPs/game.  These past two games Hooper has scored over 24 fantasy points.  Draftkings has noticed, and his price went from $3600 last week to $4300 this week.  That’s still a bargain for a guy that’s a top 5 fantasy TE.  Houston hasn’t given up many yards to the TE, but they haven’t faced a team that features one like the Falcons.  Look for him to have a solid day, in what has the potential to be a shootout.  PROJECTION: 22+ FPs

TE DARREN WALLER ($5000)

Waller has had a breakout season; he’s a top-6 TE right now and he’s still cheap.  His price is starting to skyrocket, however; he went from $3400 in week 1 to $5000 this week.  But his price hike is justified, because he’s had double-digit fantasy points each week, with a 30.1 contest winning performance in week 3.  The Bears have given up the 15th fewest points to opposing tight ends, but Waller has a crazy 29.8% target share, which is ranked #1 for tight ends.  Suffice it to say, but Waller is a huge part of the Raiders offense, and the matchup with the Bears will be no different.  Remember, that 30.1 point performance was against a solid Vikings defense.  So Waller has proven he’s matchup proof.  Put him in your roster while he’s still cheap.  PROJECTION: 17 FPs

HONORABLE MENTION: QB CHASE DANIEL ($4800); RB RONALD JONES ($4600);WR AUDEN TATE ($3500); TE TYLER EIFERT ($3300)

Good luck this weekend! Remember, ABC: ALWAYS BE CASHING!