Start/Sit Week 4

Quarterback

Start

Aaron Rodgers (vs PHI): Start of the Week
After a disappointing start to the season, mainly due to rough matchups, Rodgers is in the prime spot to bounce back this week in a huge way. I expect to bounce back so much that I am making him my start of the week at the quarterback position. The Eagles defense is currently sitting in 10th in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and will be without starting cornerback Ronald Darby this week due to injury. Rodgers is just been sitting in the mediocre category so far in fantasy leagues, but the tough matchups of Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver are the only excuse for the poor performances. I am projecting a HUGE bounce back for Rodgers this week.

Daniel Jones (vs WAS)
No one could have predicted this. In April every Giants fan felt hopeless after the future of their franchise was placed into this “average” quarterback’s hands, but after last Sunday that hopeless feeling turned into promise and excitement as Jones led the Giants to their first win of the season. I can’t think of a better matchup than the Redskins for Trubisky to have in hopes to follow up his amazing fantasy performance. The Giants are currently allowing 24.04 fantasy points against opposing quarterbacks which is currently 5th in the league. I mean they even let up 20+ points to Mitch Trubisky, so it only seems like a lock for Jones to hit the 20 plus marker. In my eyes, having Barkley out will only give Jones more oppurtunities on the ground. Expect a big week for this top 10 picks.


Jared Goff (vs TB)
After receiving tons of defense hype, the Bucs managed to let Daniel Jones torch them in the air and on the ground. With this game being at home I don’t foresee the Buccaneers defense to have a bounce back game by any means.

Shown above are Goff’s home (in split) and away (out of split) splits in terms of points scored in full ppr scoring. As you can see, Goff is a much better player at home, by over 4 points, and a 20+ point game is very much predictable to be in line this week. Via PFF’s WR/CB matchup charts, all three of Goff’s wide receivers have been given great matchup percentage with an average of 21.67% for the three WRs.

Sit

Baker Mayfield (vs BAL)
I hope by now you have no intentions in playing this overhyped quarterback until he proves something. The Browns were one team I was not bought in all the way coming into this season, and I think they are showing who they truly are. As if the Browns needed to catch a break, this matchup can’t get much tougher. The Ravens are currently allowing 17.54 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but this number is a little inflated due to the matchup against Patrick Mahomes last week so against any other offense the Ravens have been shut down for as long as I can remember. I know there is better options at the quarterback position, and I hope that you are not banking on a big performance from Mayfield, because there is no chance that is coming at all this week.

Josh Allen (vs NE)
As much as I love Josh Allen, there is no way I can play him this week against this scary New England defense. The Patriots defense is currently only allowing 3.90 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, granted they did play Ryan Fitzpatrick and Luke Falk, but Bill Belichick is famous for taking out the team’s best player aka Josh Allen. Josh Allen’s wide receivers have been given an average matchup disadvantage of 23% which ranks very high this week on PFF’s matchup chart. Allen is going to have to beat them on the ground and in time of possession, but if you own this late round ADP quarterback you probably have another option you can play for this week.

Running Back

Start
Austin Ekeler (vs MIA): Start of the week

Well, with the recent news of the return of Melvin Gordon this is looking like it will be the final game as the start for Austin Ekeler. This start to the season has been nothing short of amazing, and I am expecting nothing less than amazing this week. The Dolphins in the first three weeks have allowed totals of 38.1, 35.5, and 37.7 to opposing running back corps and the one two punch of Ekeler and Jackson will deliver great value for what could be the last week of this tandem. Expect a big going out party for Ekeler’s last game as the starting running back for the Chargers.  

Marlon Mack (vs OAK)
I know that in the Midwest everyone saw what Dalvin Cook did to this Oakland defense last week, and I expect nothing to change this week. Last week, the Raiders allowed 196 rushing yards to the Vikings in a blowout game placing Marlon Mack in a great spot this week. Star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is banged up so the Colts may lean on the rushing attack a bit more and luckily for the 20.33 carry a game Marlon Mack he should run all over this defense this week. Expect a big game for this running back and a Colts win.

Sit

Phillip Lindsay (vs JAX)
Despite week one, the Jaguars have held opposing fantasy running backs too little to none fantasy points. The last two weeks the Jaguars have allowed 26.7 total fantasy points to opposing running backs, and in a matchup with an over under of 39 nothing seems to go against a slow-paced game. Last week, Lindsay put up 29 fantasy points due to the injury of Royce Freeman. With Freeman in line to play this week don’t get too excited and expect Lindsay to put up a 29 spot again this week. Lindsay is the main passing catch back as he is seeing 17% of the team’s targets, but with -0.6 air yards per attempt against a very solid front seven like the Jaguars have I don’t expect much from the Lindsay in the air.

David Montgomery (vs MIN)
The Vikings defense shut down rookie running back Josh Jacobs and the underwhelming Raiders offense and now they get to face another rookie running back and underwhelming offense in the Bears. The big talk of the season has been the limited use of David Montgomery, for he has only seen about 12.33 carries a game and has been under utilized in the passing game. There is no reason that David Montgomery should be in your lineup until he is the full time back. To me, Montgomery is comparable to Latavius Murray…are you going to start Murray every week?

Wide Receiver

Start

Davante Adams (vs GB): Start of the Week
I am going for the start of the week stack here with Rodgers and Adams, but it only makes sense with the matchup they have this week. Adams was given a 20% matchup advantage against Ronald Darby via PFF’s matchup charts, but Darby is unlikely to play so Adams should have an even bigger edge against a weaker corner for the Eagles. To put it in perspective, Julio Jones in week two was able to catch 5 balls for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns. To compare these two receivers, I used two stats to show that Adams is not far away from his “getting back on track game.” As of the first three weeks, Julio has a 24% target share and an average depth of target (ADOT) of 12.4. Adams has a target share of 23% and an average depth of target of 11.2 which is very similar to Julio. All the tools are there for Adams, and if Julio and Terry McLaurin can put up massive games against Ronald Darby, then I expect only better for a matchup against a weaker cornerback.

Keenan Allen (vs MIA)
To no surprise, Keenan Allen made the start list as he has had a tremendous start to the season, but this week especially Allen is in line for another huge game…maybe the biggest game we have seen from him yet. Allen has been given a 32% matchup advantage against Chris Lammons of this worse then terrible Dolphins defense. In the first three games, the Dolphins are currently allowing 41.8 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and outside of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams the Chargers are very thin at receiver. I expect the Dolphins to keep this game a little closer than the last three as it is a home game, so Allen shouldn’t get game script benched right away. We may quite possibly see a 3-touchdown performance like Mike Evans had last week.

Tyler Lockett (vs ARI)
The volume king is in line for another big game this week against the brutal Cardinals secondary. Lockett has seen 13 targets per game the last two games and all signs are pointing to another high-volume week this week. The Cardinals are currently allowing 34.97 fantasy points a game to opposing wide receivers and how shown much vulnerability all season. Lockett saw a total of 165 air yards last week in a high scoring affair and is currently seeing an average of 32% of the teams targets the last two games. Lockett is going to have another great game this week, and in a big way.

Terry McLaurin (vs NYG)
“Scary” Terry McLaurin is off to a hot start this season and has fully inserted himself as the team’s WR1 and by no means is giving that spot away any time soon. McLaurin has been given the highest matchup advantage this week out of all receivers at 35% against Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins has let up a touchdown in every single game this season and McLaurin is doing the same. It only seems fitting that McLaurin will find the endzone again. Remember what Mike Evans did to Jenkins last week? McLaurin is going to feast this week.

Sit

John Brown (vs NE)
Brown has been able to provide great WR2/WR3 value so far this season, but this week pivot elsewhere to find value. Brown is matched up against Stephon Gilmore this week and has been given a 35% matchup disadvantage, the highest of the week. The Patriots defense has allowed over 100 yards once this season, to the Steelers, and I don’t expect much different here as this veteran defense is going to pressure Josh Allen into making big plays. Brown should see less work this week and the chances of him being frequently open are slim.

Stefon Diggs (vs CHI)
Diggs has been more than disappointing this year, for he is not returning anywhere close to production that translates to the ADP he was taken at. The air yards just aren’t there for Diggs this season as he only has one game above 50 yards and the rest are way below that. The Vikings have made it obvious that they want to run the ball and will not shy away from that until it stops working. The upside just doesn’t seem to be there for Diggs or at least for now so sit Diggs in a tough matchup this week and hope for a turn around.

Tight End

Start

Will Dissly (vs ARI): Start of the week
I don’t think anyone has ever heard of this guy before his emergence into the NFL last year, but man this guy is entering the weekly starting tight end tier and he is in line for a huge game this week. The Cardinals are worse than terrible against the opposing tight end position as they have allowed point totals of 27.6, 34.7, 25.5 the first three weeks to the whole team’s tight end group. Luckily for Dissly, the Seahawks just traded away the other tight end on the team Nick Vannett so Dissly is going to see all the tight end work this week while newly acquired Luke Willson gets worked back into the offense. So, if Dissly were to accumulate at least 90% of what the Cardinals allow per week (29.27) then he would net 26 fantasy points which I know for a fact would be in the top 5 for the position this week. FIRE HIM UP THIS WEEK.

Delanie Walker (vs ATL)
Another tight end with a good matchup this week is Delanie Walker. Walker, via PFF’s matchup charts, has been given the top matchup advantage this week of 32% against the Falcons Ricardo Allen. If you watch any Titans game, you can easily tell that Mariota relies on Walker to provide big plays for this lackluster offense. Walker currently ranks 4th among all receiving options in team target percentage with 24%, and that number will not be changing this week as the Titans will need to score frequently in order to keep up with this high-powered Falcons offense.

Sit

Jared Cook (vs DAL)
With all the offseason hype around Jared Cook and the connection he should develop with Drew Brees, it only seemed fitting for it to not actually work out. It is only one game sample size, but in the one game without Brees Jared Cook only saw 2 targets and managed to catch one ball for seven yards. I don’t expect much to change as Cook has been given a 3% matchup disadvantage this week to a team that is only allowing 7.4 fantasy points to opposing tight ends the last two weeks. The Saints are going to rely on Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, so I don’t expect Jared Cook to be a big part of their game plan.

Trey Burton (vs MIN)
This decision is sort of related to the Montgomery decision in the fact that this offense, that is brutal, is facing a good defense in what should be a low scoring game and I just don’t want any part of it. Burton was able to haul in all four targets last week, but only turned those 4 catches into 20 yards against a defense that is bad against the tight end. Burton could maybe be a bench stash if the Bears offense can turn it around, but that is not happening this week.