Welcome Everyone! Coach X here (@xavierjwarner) and I absolutely love player props and was more than happy to be bought onto the FSGN team in an attempt to tackle (no pun intended) props in the football world. Last year, I did NBA player props for The Quant Edge and a friend of mine Eliot Crist in which we saw a 52.8% hit rate (361 for 683). I was very happy with my approach and choices as the season went on. Football is a little different though as we will be able to key in on players once a week that are gameplanned for and against on a consistent basis. I hope you all join me on this ride as we look to remain in the positive week in and week out from week 1 all the way through the Superbowl! But enough with the banter, lets get right to my breakdown of the NFL’s first regular season game for the 2019 Season.
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
Rodgers O 1.5 Passing Touchdowns -134/Rodgers O 267.5 Passing Yards -108/Rodgers O 13.5 Rushing Yards -102
Rodgers has played pretty well against the Bears in recent memory. Last season he hit over on our selected prop in both games totaling 286 and 274 yards respectively through the air. This provides us some solace when projecting how Rodgers may fair in this game. On the rushing front, he has hit our projected number in both of the previous two games against the Bears as well with a hit in 8 of 16 games last season including 4 of his last 5. Rodgers isn’t a blazing fast mobile QB by its definition but he can surely move around the pocket and use his athleticism to get small chunks of yards when needed. Rodgers is presented with a new offense under Matt LaFleur so I am increasingly optimistic that his skillset will take precedence and allow him to be as dynamic as we are used to Rodgers should see a very productive day today and I’m buying him at over on both of the props listed without hesitation.
Aaron Jones O 12.5 Rush Attempts +126/Aaron Jones O 52.5 Rushing Yards -116
Aaron Jones jumps into the offense in 2019 with a new offensive coordinator who just let Derrick Henry run wild towards the end of 2018. Once Henry was given a consistent and heavy workload under LaFleur he totaled 88 attempts, 585 yards plus 7 touchdowns on the ground. I think he takes note in this and understands how much an effective run game can have on the positive opportunities within a game. In my opinion, he doesn’t wait so long to get the running game going at the start of this season. I have Jones projected for at least 16 carries in this game and coupled with his outstanding 5.5 career yards per attempt, this prop is low. As long as LaFleur sticks to his guns and allows Jones (who has flashed when given the opportunity) to shoulder the load in the backfield, we should be locked in well over this number.
Geronimo Allison O 3.5 Receptions -102
Geronimo started 4 straight games in 2018 and was looking to be a quality piece in the Green Bay Offense from the very beginning. In those 4 games, he totaled 29 targets while hauling in 19 of those targets (65% catch rate) including a huge touchdown against the Bears in week 1 after an absolute bomb from Rodgers on the near sideline (I remember watching that live, it was gorgeous). Allison has been tabbed a starter again this season after returning back to the lineup. Now with no Cobb on the roster, more targets will open up for the big body receiver and I believe Rodgers will find a way to get him involved as much as possible. To note, Allison has hit our target of receptions in 3 of the 4 starts last season so the precedence from his last regular-season action is there. Allison is a prime candidate to breakout this season and I think that starts in this one.
Davante Adams Anytime TD +105
Davante Adams to score a touchdown at any time in this game is something I wanted to jump all over. If there is any player in the NFL that I am confident in scoring a touchdown from game to game, it is Davante Adams. Last season, Adams scored in every game but 4… yes every game but 4 of them (which is wild to me). His level of consistency is almost unmatched and is one of those guys, with his physical attributes and elite QB can continue that production in 2019 as well. Adams has double-digit touchdowns in each of his last 3 seasons since starting to receive 100+ targets. Expect more from Adams and Rodgers this season and it starts against the Bears in week one. At plus money, I’m grabbing this and keeping it moving.
David Montgomery O 58.5 Rushing Yards -112
DMont is a rookie, so we don’t have much quantitative date to base our value on but we can use what we have heard and seen to project what type of workload he will be projected to have in the season opener. Based on how much Nagy has hyped him up in the offseason, I expect Montgomery to be an integral part of this offense from the very start. For those wondering about Tarik Cohen and his ability to eat into Montgomery’s touches, don’t be. DMont is a much more complete running back and will carve out a role in this offense from the very start. A lot of the buying for him is coming from intuition but if you’re ready to roll with me with anticipation that everything we’ve heard has been factual then let’s make Montgomery a big choice in our first week of the NFL Season.
Bonus Prop – Mitchell Trubisky Anytime TD +380
Okay… The numbers don’t bode well for this option but I am very interested in buying into Trubisky. As we have seen in 2018, Trubisky has some quality rushing abilities as he’s totaled at least 5 rushes in 8 of the 14 games he started last season (57%) which shows me that either he had to get out of the pocket after some breakdowns or there were more designed runs in that offense. Either way, the reason doesn’t matter as long as the attempts are there. In his last two meetings against the Packers, Trubisky has totaled 10 carries for 48 yards and 1 TD and I believe he will continue to gain confidence in himself, his weapons and the scheme that Matt Nagy has in place. I am buying this prop with optimism and hoping to return the +380 value that sits on Trubisky running one in on a scramble down in the red zone as he did in this game last season.
Best of luck to everyone! Let’s crush week 1!