Starting Pitchers Splits 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Time Through The Lineup.

Written by Michael Simione – Twitter @SpStreamer

Introduction

Pitchers innings can be very important in Fantasy Baseball. The best thing a fantasy pitcher can do is go late into games because it can help us in a variety of ways. The more innings pitched the more stats can accumulate (i.e. K’s) and the more likely a pitcher can obtain a win. The “Aces,” always seem to be able to do this thus making them very valuable. Currently teams get about 34 at bats per game. That means about 3.7 at bats per inning (lets round this to 4). So, for a pitcher to get to inning 6 or 7 they will have to go through the lineup 3 times. Below you will see every eligible starter with their ERA the 1st time, 2nd time, and 3rd time through the batting order.

Pitcher1st Time 2nd Time 3rd Time
Zack Greinke3.784.911.23
Lance Lynn3.218.035.14
Max Scherzer5.711.454.30
Jake Arrieta0.574.205.40
Felix Hernandez6.235.733.65
Cole Hamels0.554.615.84
Madison Bumgarner3.443.065.93
Julio Teheran2.454.608.44
Brett Anderson5.793.123.86
Justin Verlander3.441.424.26
Wade Miley3.863.521.80
Patrick Corbin2.202.258.18
Miles Mikolas2.374.965.91
Mike Minor1.652.253.68
Mike Leake4.407.243.00
Stephen Strasburg2.953.122.93
Zack Wheeler3.956.004.15
Chris Sale2.049.980.87
Jacob deGrom1.107.622.53
Merrill Kelly2.576.286.30
Jose Urena4.705.634.11
Noah Syndergaard2.768.824.11
Kyle Hendricks4.501.763.97
Trevor Bauer2.953.064.40
Gerrit Cole3.633.935.14
Marcus Stroman3.121.085.91
Jakob Junis6.194.765.73
Zach Eflin2.874.301.80
Jose Berrios1.962.453.38
Hyun-Jin Ryu2.122.301.69
Jon Gray1.006.087.15
German Marquez1.745.504.05
Matthew Boyd2.045.091.23
Marco Gonzales3.381.863.14
Luis Castillo1.450.455.40
Brad Keller3.003.126.94
Spencer Turnbull1.803.291.80
Kyle Freeland7.076.593.97
Trevor Williams3.384.303.55
Kenta Maeda5.025.023.60
Sandy Alcantara4.409.490.77
Shane Bieber2.454.113.38
Yusei Kikuchi3.183.723.75
Charlie Morton1.625.000.00
Caleb Smith4.111.470.00
Clayton Kershaw3.093.091.93
David Price5.272.703.00
Martin Perez0.002.453.00
Tyler Glasnow1.131.003.00
Joe Musgrove2.032.773.86
Zach Davies0.541.264.00
Brandon Woodruff1.626.754.66
Homer Bailey7.073.465.00
Jose Quintana1.325.545.00
Aaron Nola3.575.065.59
Mashiro Tanka1.474.008.00
Jameson Taillon3.071.989.00

Some Outliers I Noticed

Madison Bumgarner’s ERA the 3rd time through the order spikes up to 5.93. This most likely wont last though. Here are is underlying numbers: 11.9 K-BB%, 4.30 FIP, 4.17 xFIP, 63.9 LOB%, and .340 BABIP. Seems to be getting a little unlucky and I expect this to drop.

Patrick Corbin’s ERA the 3rd time through jumps to 8.18. This might be a little troubling. His underlying numbers: 9.4 K-BB%, 5.32 FIP, 4.98 xFIP, 49.4 LOB%, 3.14 BABIP. His BABIP isn’t bad and that K-BB% is a little scary making me think batters are figuring him out later into the game.

Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom post horrible ERA’s the second time through the order but rebound the 3rd time through. But both posts above average K-BB% rates and they both have above .400 BABIP’s making me think it is just an aberration.

Trevor Bauer’s ERA the 3rd time through the order jumps to 4.40. This looks a little scary to me because he boasts a horrible 4.8 K-BB%, 5.71 FIP, and 5.07 xFIP. And he isn’t getting unlucky with a 75.5 LOB% and .273 BABIP.

Caleb Smith’s ERA the 1st time through the order is 4.11. The crazy thing is it’s his highest K-BB% compared as to the 2nd and 3rd time through. He posts a 33.3 K-BB% with a 3.33 FIP, and 2.24 xFIP. I would expect this to come down and he go further into games.

Conclusion

I thought this was interesting and out of the box because a lot of people wouldn’t think to look at this. Now I am not sure if this will really mean much as to future performances. But us as fantasy owners want pitchers who not only can go deep into games but also perform well throughout. I did do some research on other guys on this list but didn’t want to make this article too long. If you want to know about anyone else please ask and I hope you enjoyed.