Written by Michael Simione – Twitter @SpStreamer
Pitchers innings can be very important in Fantasy Baseball. The best thing a fantasy pitcher can do is go late into games because it can help us in a variety of ways. The more innings pitched the more stats can accumulate (i.e. K’s) and the more likely a pitcher can obtain a win. The “Aces,” always seem to be able to do this thus making them very valuable. Currently teams get about 34 at bats per game. That means about 3.7 at bats per inning (lets round this to 4). So, for a pitcher to get to inning 6 or 7 they will have to go through the lineup 3 times. Below you will see every eligible starter with their ERA the 1st time, 2nd time, and 3rd time through the batting order.
|Pitcher||1st Time||2nd Time||3rd Time|
Some Outliers I Noticed
Madison Bumgarner’s ERA the 3rd time through the order spikes up to 5.93. This most likely wont last though. Here are is underlying numbers: 11.9 K-BB%, 4.30 FIP, 4.17 xFIP, 63.9 LOB%, and .340 BABIP. Seems to be getting a little unlucky and I expect this to drop.
Patrick Corbin’s ERA the 3rd time through jumps to 8.18. This might be a little troubling. His underlying numbers: 9.4 K-BB%, 5.32 FIP, 4.98 xFIP, 49.4 LOB%, 3.14 BABIP. His BABIP isn’t bad and that K-BB% is a little scary making me think batters are figuring him out later into the game.
Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom post horrible ERA’s the second time through the order but rebound the 3rd time through. But both posts above average K-BB% rates and they both have above .400 BABIP’s making me think it is just an aberration.
Trevor Bauer’s ERA the 3rd time through the order jumps to 4.40. This looks a little scary to me because he boasts a horrible 4.8 K-BB%, 5.71 FIP, and 5.07 xFIP. And he isn’t getting unlucky with a 75.5 LOB% and .273 BABIP.
Caleb Smith’s ERA the 1st time through the order is 4.11. The crazy thing is it’s his highest K-BB% compared as to the 2nd and 3rd time through. He posts a 33.3 K-BB% with a 3.33 FIP, and 2.24 xFIP. I would expect this to come down and he go further into games.
I thought this was interesting and out of the box because a lot of people wouldn’t think to look at this. Now I am not sure if this will really mean much as to future performances. But us as fantasy owners want pitchers who not only can go deep into games but also perform well throughout. I did do some research on other guys on this list but didn’t want to make this article too long. If you want to know about anyone else please ask and I hope you enjoyed.