1) Patrick Mahomes
At no surprise, my number 1 most likely matches every other fantasy owner and that is Patrick Mahomes for the Kansas City Chiefs. Coming off the best fantasy season for a quarterback with 417 points I expect Mahomes to repeat his QB1 performance, but not on as great of a scale as he did in the 2018 season. Although I think Mahomes is going to repeat his dominance I have one major problem with Mahomes so far this off-season, and that is his current ADP. In one QB leagues Mahomes current ADP is at 3.03 and in 2 QB or superflex leagues his current ADP is 1.04. In my eyes and past fantasy experience that is outrageous, as I am a big preacher of waiting on drafting a QB. By taking Mahomes at pick number 4 in your superflex league you are passing on a workhorse back like Gurley or Kamara, and by passing on them it results in getting your RB1 to be a David Johnson or Joe Mixon. Just as an example the gap in points between Todd Gurley and David Johnson was almost 140 points which is a larger gap than Mahomes and the QB2 which was roughly 70 points. Yes Mahomes throws left handed and makes flashy passes, but don’t fall into the trap of taking a quarterback in early in your draft this year as the gap between workhorse running backs and running backs in the middle tier should be large enough to favor you away from the Mahomes hype.
2) Andrew Luck
Coming off a unexpected season of fantasy domination I have no doubts that Andrew Luck will continue to light opposing defenses. No one really knew how Luck was going to lead this young Colts team, but he showed that even with a lack of weapons provided he can still produce at a solid QB1 fantasy level. For Luck it is only getting better, as I expect the Colts to add weapons in free agency and the draft which is only going to make Luck’s fantasy production rise. Owners should have no worries in terms of production if their QB1 is Andrew Luck.
3) Aaron Rodgers
Coming off a disappointing season this future hall of fame quarterback will provide nothing less than a bounce back season. With an o-line ranking 26th in protection rate and a supporting cast efficiency ranking 21st it was safe to say the overall strength of the Packers offense was the leading factor to Rodgers poor performance. I think an important factor to his success is finding chemistry with another receiver besides Adams, and obviously that was hard last year as it seemed as if the WR core was always banged up. With a whole off season and an offensive minded coach I expect Rodgers to find that chemistry with the sophomore receivers on the team, which in result will put Rodgers back at the top of the QB rankings in fantasy next season.
4) Deshaun Watson
Watson owners rejoiced at the end of last season as their risk of putting early draft capital towards this injury prone quarterback paid off, as Watson provided a full healthy season. Coming off a shortened rookie season due to injury fantasy owners were left with a hard decision as to if they were to spend a early pick on this high upside QB for the Houston Texans. The only negative side to Watson’s game is the lack of o-line talent that the Texans have, but besides that Watson is a dual threat QB that is a solid bet to finish as a top 5 fantasy quarterback. Like I said his dual threat ability played a huge role in his fantasy production as he averaged 3.4 fantasy points per game just from his feet which is an amazing bonus on top of his already solid passing attack. Look for Watson to repeat as a top end fantasy QB, and if the Texans can figure out their o-line problems then look for Watson to push for that QB2 spot.
5) Matt Ryan
Coming off a quiet season of fantasy domination Matt Ryan finds himself as number 5 in my rankings. Finishing as QB3 and only 2 points out of a QB2 finish it seems almost as if Matt Ryan was forgot about last year, and that is due to the fact of the lackluster season the Falcons had last year. Due to the poor season the Falcons had Ryan scored the majority of his points in garbage time in the 2018 season. Although this may seem scary for owners when they are deciding on if they should draft Matt Ryan, but owners should not worry about having Ryan as their QB1. With Julio still as the main offensive piece and Calvin Ridley who is only in his sophomore season there is no reason why Matt Ryan should put up poor passing numbers. Not only does he have amazing pieces surrounding him, but with Dirk Koetter running the offense the passing volume will not change. Yes the Falcons team in the big picture needs some work, but do not let that drive you away from taking Matt Ryan in the later rounds of your draft.
6) Jameis Winston
Coming in at my number 6 I have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston. Coming off a frustrating season Winston, who will not be splitting time, is hoping to provide solid fantasy production for the 2019 season. I have no problem with putting Winston this high due to the fact that the only thing holding him back was Ryan Fitzpatrick last season. With a new head coach in Bruce Arians and a full offseason to clean some things up Winston is going to provide QB1 numbers next fantasy season. With what will most likely be a terrible defense in 2019 that only makes Winston more appealing as the Bucs will need to throw the ball to come from behind the whole game, and with an amazing supporting cast and a viable head coach Winston is an awesome value pick in the late rounds of drafts. He is one of my favorite quarterbacks I have been getting in mock drafts so far this off season.
7) Russell Wilson
Last year it seemed as if this man could do anything, and I have no reason to assume that is going to stop for the 2019 season. With doubts of having no for sure starting running back and the predicted worst o-line it looked as if Wilson was going to struggle putting up solid fantasy points. Needless to say he definitely proved everyone wrong and finished as a top 10 fantasy QB. The part that I think is crazy is not the fact that he finished top 10, but that he finished top 10 with his team ranking 32nd in passing plays per game. As a fantasy owner, I hope that this number will increase as if it does I only see Wilson producing higher than QB9 numbers. Hence why I have him as my QB7.
8) Drew Brees
I have had a hard time ranking this guy as he continues to confuse me every fantasy year. Coming off a streaking hot start that led to a cold finish I am hesitant when it comes to drafting Brees for the 2019 season. I do see some upside with Brees, as the Saints finished at 29th in team pass plays which I would expect to increase. If they can incorporate a couple more pass plays a game I can see Brees adding 5-6 more fantasy points per game which will keep him as a lock in the top 10 for the 2019 season.
9) Baker Mayfield
It’s Baker time in Cleveland baby, and I know that Browns fans and fantasy fans are excited for this new era to start. It is hard to find a reasonable spot for Baker’s floor and ceiling, but it only seems right to net him as a top 10 QB with Kitchens as the head coach. Mayfield provided QB1 numbers when Kitchens called the plays last year, and with a whole off season to develop I can only see Baker producing good enough numbers to put him as a QB1 on his respective team. I do not know if I will putting all of my shares in drafting Mayfield, but the excitement he brings will lead me to drafting him in one or two leagues. The only advice I can give with this is to have a backup plan in case the Browns return to original form.
10) Ben Roethlisberger
Coming in at number 10 I have the Pittsburgh Steelers veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger. Although I do have Big Ben in my top 10 I do fully expect a drop in production from previous years do to the almost guarantee that Leveon Bell and Antonio Brown will be leaving this off season. Without those two, who have carried him in the past, I do not expect Big Ben to be a top 3 QB even though the Steelers tend to lead the league in pass plays per game. It will be up to the young core of James Conner and Juju to help Ben in staying in the top 10 for the 2019 season. I will most likely not be drafting Big Ben for the 2019 season.
Thank you for reading my write ups. Go check out my podcast on apple podcasts and my you tube channel “Lukas Kacer.” Enjoy!